Question by just plain jim: Do you want to see what the Brits are betting on?
“Ever since he appointed her, people have stopped betting on McCain,” said David Williams of Ladbrokes in London. “He went down like a sack of potatoes as far as the punters are concerned.”
The odds, based on wagers made online with Paddy Power and William Hill Plc and in their betting shops, also suggest that McCain is less likely to win the White House because of his vice-presidential running-mate choice, announced Aug. 29. Both gambling houses, along with rival Ladbrokes Plc, place Democrat Barack Obama, 47, as the favorite to triumph in the contest.
Political betting on financial markets outperforms polling as an elections predictor, according to a University of North Carolina study and figures from the Iowa Electronic Markets. Only twice in the century through 2004 — the 1916 election and the 2000 contest between Bush and Democrat Al Gore — did the betting markets get it wrong on the popular vote.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080902/pl_bloomberg/azjwbcginwsg
They also think McCain is going to dump her off the ticket within a week.
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Best answer:
Answer by Smart-as-a-whip
That would be a bad bet!
Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!
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{ 10 comments… read them below or add one }
ok
If they dump Sarah Palin all of us elitist rednecks who love our guns and religion will dump McCain. We need a gun toting good ole girl who knows how to skin a polar bear.
i bet he dosent! i bet mccain/palinn win in NOV.
After the last eight years, I think McCain could have resurrected Reagan from the dead and nominated him as his VP pick and still have had a difficult time winning this election. My money would definitely be on Obama/Biden, particularly after the lapse in judgment on McCain’s part in picking Palin as his VP choice. What the hell was he thinking????
Well, since Gore did win in 2000, the betting place was only wrong once.
Old John is toast!
well jim, they are promising a rock ‘em sock ‘em speech from sarah palin tonight. this should change everything. i am privileged to have already heard her speech, here recited by her speech writer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WALIARHHLII&feature=related
Jim,
does your research also indicate the number of times the betting favourite changed in the 3 months prior to election day?
i’d guess those historical stats could quite easily be made from how the bookies called it the day before the results came in . not how accurate they were as far from the election as we now are.
Bufferoo
Sadly, the Brits may be giving most USAians credit for more intelligence than they actually have.
He may not dump her off the ticket, but do you actually think the “real people” in power will let her step into the presidency if something would happen to McCain? That’s the real reason she was nominated. They knew McCain was going to lose and thought that a woman would serve both purposes. It would have been a lot more difficult to get rid of, let’s say, Mitt Romney. I told my husband, two weeks ago, that a woman was going to be the party’s pick.
By the way Jim, you are forgetting the fiascal at the polls, in 2000. So the betting houses were only wrong once. Gore actually won that year.